959 days since the first case of coronavirus in the UK.

The ZOE COVID Study’s positive symptomatic case estimate is currently 124,644 cases (+6.9% in a week). The 7-day estimate shows 849,492 cases (+9.5%). On average, it is now estimated that at least 121,356 people* are still infected by coronavirus every day in the UK.

(*this is the equivalent of the population ¹ of Chichester ² in West Sussex being infected every day.)


Vaccination remains the best defence against severe disease and hospitalisation. It is also very much sensible to wear a face covering in crowded, enclosed spaces.



🙈🙉🙊 #CovidIsNotOver


First published in Sept 2022.







covid summary


Latest UK Dashboard


Our reporting strategy

Since 27 July we don’t publish the UKHSA data in our daily reporting. Those figures are just conveniently and undoubtedly flawed. Instead, we now focus on the ZOE COVID Study and the ONS Infection Survey data.

Our readers deserve the truth about COVID-19 and the UK government has clearly been doing everything – from ending free tests to irregular dashboard reports, delaying and ending some data reports – to make sure the media slowly lose interest in COVID reporting and get the public to believe both that they can live with the virus and that the pandemic is over. This is wrong and untrue, as the WHO and most public health experts have repeatedly told us.

For these reasons, PMP Magazine has so far, and will continue to publish COVID daily updates because we see it as part of our mission to always report the truth, even if it means we are the last media in the UK to do so.

While others are sleepwalking to hide the inconvenient truth about COVID-19, PMP Magazine isn’t giving up! Our daily report is free and accessible to all.

Please support our work with a donation: PMP-Magazine.com/crowdfunding

COVID is not over.

Reminder on data reporting in the UK

Since 1 July 2022, the COVID-19 UKHSA Dashboard has moved to weekly reporting. From 8 September 2022, updates take place on Thursdays.
The reporting of ZOE COVID Study data has remained daily.
The reporting of ONS Infection Survey data has remained weekly with a 7-day lag.




(Source: UKHSA | ZOE | ONS)


Zoe COVID Study Estimates

■ Daily Estimated Cases

After having plateaued for a couple of weeks, we have seen an increase in symptomatic cases for 16 consecutive days. Today is the first day with the number of cases decreasing slightly. How prepared are we for the autumn and winter waves? Shouldn’t booster jabs be available to everyone as soon as possible?







ONS Infection Survey Estimates

■ Weekly Estimates Cases

The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus continued to decrease in England and Wales in the latest week (ending 28 August 2022). The trend was uncertain in Northern Ireland and Scotland.

The ONS estimates that 944,700 people tested positive for COVID-19 in that week.



■ Weekly COVID-19 Recorded Deaths

Deaths involving COVID-19 increased in the UK
According to the ONS, there were 350 deaths registered in the UK involving coronavirus in the week ending 2 September 2022, down from 505 in the previous week.

The total number of UK deaths was 10,198, which was 7.4% above the five-year average (706 excess deaths). This means COVID-19 deaths accounted for 3.4% of all deaths in the latest week, a decrease from 4.1% in the previous week.

(The number of death registrations in the week ending 2 September 2022 are affected by the bank holiday on 29 August 2022. Caution is needed when comparing across weeks, and with the five-year average.)







UKHSA Latest Data – ENGLAND ONLY

The data below are as officially reported today for the latest ‘available’ data set in each case, and produced by Dr Joe Pajak.





latest guidance


UK Government’s List of symptoms of COVID-19

After two years without updating its list of just three symptoms of COVID-19 (a high temperature, a new continuous cough and a loss or change to the sense of smell or taste), the NHS has finally updated its list of symptoms of COVID:

😩 Shortness of breath
🥱 Feeling tired or exhausted
🤕 An aching body
🤯 A headache
🤐 A sore throat
🤧 A blocked or runny nose
😞 Loss of appetite
🥴 Diarrhoea
🤮 Feeling sick or being sick

No change to MHRA advice on the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines for those who are pregnant or breastfeeding

Our advice remains that the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective during pregnancy and breastfeeding.

We are aware of false claims on social media that our advice on the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines while pregnant or breastfeeding has changed.

We would like to reassure the public that our advice has not changed. Our advice remains that the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective during pregnancy and breastfeeding and there is substantial evidence to support this advice.

(Source: MHRA, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency)

TRAVEL: Entry rules and restrictions

Check out the latest situation for 20 of the top travel destinations for Brits:



ZOE COVID Study’s Top 20 symptoms of COVID-19 (as of 8-Sep-2022)






covid tweets







we need your help


Since February 2022, the UKHSA has slowly reduced the publishing of its daily COVID updates, following the UK Government’s narrative that we should all “live with the virus”. UKHSA now reports only once a week.

The virus doesn’t take a break 6 days a week.
It doesn’t infect people from time to time.
It doesn’t stop at a border either.

The virus still spreads and kills people every day in the UK and around the world. COVID-19 is NOT over.

We, at PMP, have decided to continue to publish the latest COVID data available every day, especially the Zoe COVID Study estimates – probably more accurate than the UK Government’s own data since free testing has ended in England,  and the ONS COVID Infection Survey estimates.

Please, support our work through our crowdfunding to help us to continue our COVID reporting: Donate now.


🙈🙉🙊 #CovidIsNotOver.






must-read


The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic
As of May 31, 2022, there were 6·9 million reported deaths and 17·2 million estimateddeaths from COVID-19, as reported by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation(IHME; throughout the report, we rely on IHME estimates of infections and deaths;note that the IHME gives an estimated range, an…
End of global COVID-19 pandemic in sight — WHO chief
According to the head of the World Health Organization, the world has never been in a better position to end the COVID-19 pandemic but now is not the time to stop the fight against the virus that already killed 6 million people worldwide.
Lancet report claiming Covid could have come from US lab prompts anger
‘This may be one of The Lancet’s most shameful moments regarding its role as a steward and leader in communicating crucial findings about science and medicine,’ virologist says
Covid-19 inquiry delayed following Queen’s death
The UK Covid-19 inquiry will now begin on October 4. This is despite the national mourning period ending on September 19, the day of the Queen’s funeral
New survey suggests reinfection worsens Long COVID
Survey indicates that getting reinfected worsens symptoms of Long COVID or triggers a recurrence of symptoms in people who have recovered.
COVID still a threat due to low vaccination, says Africa CDC
The Africa CDC chief was asked if he agreed with the WHO that the end of the COVD-19 pandemic was in sight.











variant news



■ 🧬 UKHSA Variant Technical Briefing

BA.5

BA.5 is the predominant circulating variant in the UK.

BA.4/BA.5

Analysis of the relative risk of admission to hospital as an inpatient following presentation to emergency care, comparing BA.4 and BA.5 to BA.2 found no evidence for a difference in risk between the variants.

BA.4.6

Newly designated variant – V-22SEP-01 (BA.4.6) Omicron sub-lineage BA.4.6 was identified as part of horizon scanning on 15 August 2022. On 1 September 2022 BA.4.6 was designated as variant V-22SEP-01.

BA.4.6 has a mutation in a known antigenically significant site (S: R346T) and an apparent small growth advantage relative to BA.5. BA.4.6 represented 3.31% of UK samples for the week beginning 14 August 2022. The University of Oxford reported preliminary neutralisation data to the Variant Technical Group. Pseudoviral neutralisation assays performed on BA.4.6 show that titres are reduced 2-fold, compared to neutralisation of BA.4 or BA.5 using sera from triple dosed recipients of the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine.

BA.2.75

As of 6 September 2022, there were 100 cases with BA.2.75 in the UK. Of these, 89 were in England, 7 in Scotland and 4 in Wales. BA.2.75 is currently increasing in frequency in England. The growth rate increased from July 2022 to August 2022 and is currently 61% per week compared to co-circulating lineages.

Two sub-lineages of BA.2.75 (BA.2.75.1 and BA.2.75.2) are currently being assessed. Sublineage BA.2.75.1 is defined by the addition of S:D574V, and sub-lineage BA.2.75.2 by the addition of S:R346T, S:F486S, S:D1199N. Sub-lineage BA.2.75.2 was first identified as part of horizon scanning on 20 August 2022 and was made a signal in monitoring on 7 September 2022.

(Source: UKHSA)


■ 🧬 COG-UK sequencing





(Source: COG-UK)








vaccination


💉 Latest UK Vaccination

Note: UK vaccination data is now published weekly on Thursdays.






(Source: UK Health Security Agency + Public Health Wales
+ Public Health Scotland + HSC NI + ONS)


Note: Data cross-referenced with the latest official data from the UK dashboard.

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021. (Source: ONS)









long covid


🧩 Long COVID


LONG COVID UK ESTIMATE (ONS – 1-Sep-2022, Data up to 31-Jul-2022)

🚨 2 million people currently live with long COVID in the UK (vs 1.8 million last month)
🚨 3.1% of the UK population currently live with long COVID (vs 2.8%)
🚨 1 in 33 people in the UK has long COVID
🚨 Long COVID symptoms still adversely affect the day-to-day activities of 1.5 million people, 73% of long COVID sufferers (vs 1.3 million)
🚨 Of those, 384,000 people (19%) are “limited a lot” (vs 369,000)
🚨 582,000 (29%) first had COVID-19 before Alpha became the main variant; 256,000 (13%) in the Alpha period, 386,000 (19%) in the Delta period, and 681,000 (34%) in the Omicron period.
LONG COVID UK ESTIMATE

🚨 Most common symptoms of long COVID
▫ fatigue (62%) ▲
▫ shortness of breath (37%) ▲
▫ difficulty concentrating (33%) ▲
▫ muscle ache (31%) ▲

🚨 Prevalence of long COVID is greatest in people
▫ aged 35-69 years
▫ females
▫ living in more deprived areas
▫ working in social care
▫ with another activity limiting health condition or disability

🚨 Long COVID by occupation (ONS – 29 Jun-2022)
▫ Police and protective services (25%)
▫ Education (22%)
▫ Social care sector (22%)


Note: There has been a change in the way the data are collected by the ONS. As a result, these estimates are not fully comparable with those in previous bulletins. For more details on these changes, please see the Impact of moving to remote data collection.








long covid kids


🧩 Long COVID Kids

LONG COVID KIDS

According to a recent systematic review and meta-analyses of Long-COVID in children and adolescents published in Nature:

🚨 Long COVID affects 1 in 4 infected children (25.24%)

🚨 For hospitalised children, prevalence of long-COVID is nearly 1 in 3 infected children (29.19%)

🚨 Most prevalent clinical manifestations of Long COVID in children/adolescents:
▫ mood symptoms (16.50%)
▫ fatigue (9.66%)
▫ sleep disorders (8.42%)
▫ headache (7.84%)
▫ respiratory symptoms (7.62%)
▫ sputum production or nasal congestion (7.53%)
▫ cognitive symptoms (6.27%)
▫ loss of appetite (6.07%)
▫ exercise intolerance (5.73%)
▫ altered smell (5.60%)

🚨 Children infected by COVID-19 have a higher risk of persistent dyspnea, anosmia/ageusia, and/or fever

🚨 Like adults, the pediatric population’s risk factors associated with long-COVID are:
▫ older age children
▫ female gender
▫ severe COVID-19
▫ overweight/obesity
▫ comorbid allergic diseases and other long-term co-morbidities

Click to enlarge


Conclusion

The authors of the systematic review and meta-analyses of Long-COVID in children and adolescents conclude:

🧾
Protective measures are essential to prevent long-COVID in children. We need to understand the long-COVID pathophysiology and symptomatology to support clinical management systems, establish rehabilitation programs, and design guidelines and therapeutic research.
Long-COVID represents a significant public health concern, and there are no guidelines to address its diagnosis and management.
“Our meta-analyses further support the importance of continuously monitoring the impact of long-COVID in children and adolescents and the need to include all variables and appropriate control cohorts in studies to better understand the real burden of pediatric long-COVID.”






additional data


Weekly New Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 (per million)




Total Cases & Total Deaths




Orphanhood in the UK

🕯️ Orphanhood of children from COVID-19 is estimated at 15,189 in the UK.
🚨 A tragedy barely mentioned in the media.
(Source: Imperial College London)




Orphanhood in the World

🕯️ Globally 10.5M children lost parents or caregivers and 7.5M children experienced COVID-associated orphanhood.
(Source: JAMA Network)




Estimated ®️ Number

(Sources: UK Health Security Agency + Welsh Government
+ Scottish Government + N-I Ministry of Health)



Population Testing Positive for COVID-19

(Source: ONS)



Number of contact tracing alerts sent (England & Wales)

(Source: NHS)



Stringency Index

(Source: University of Oxford)






data sources


📚 Data Sources:



PMP Magazine



Going further:

  • Estimates of the population for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, 2019 | ONS
  • Chichester, West Sussex





  • — AUTHORS —

    Dr Joe Pajak, PhD in physical chemistry: exploring the data, governor of an NHS FT hospital.


    J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.



    Sources
    • Text: This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 15 Sept 2022. | The authors write in a personal capacity.
    • Data cross-referenced with the latest official data from the UK dashboard.
    • Cover: Adobe Stock/SergeyBitos.
    • Icons from www.flaticon.com





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