LATEST ZOE COVID STUDY UK DATA

The ZOE COVID Study’s positive symptomatic case estimate is currently 189,640 new cases*. It is predicted that at least 2,177,739 people have symptomatic COVID today in the UK.

(* This is the equivalent of the population of the Metropolitan Borough of Bury¹  in Greater Manchester being infected every day.)

ESTIMATES:

  • 28-Sep estimate: 189,640 new cases (+24.7% in a week)
  • 7-day estimate: 1,205,495 cases (+23.1%)
  • Daily average: 172,214 people infected on average every day
  • Currently predicted to have COVID: 2,177,739 people



📈 Comment

How do we reverse the trends reported in the UK dashboard as new variants show up, people start mixing indoors again with the colder weather, the number of infections and hospital admissions are on the increase, and schools and universities are back?

Increase the number of free tests;
Increase the pace of the vaccine booster rollout;
Encourage the use of masks;
Reduce mixing indoors without effective ventilation.

Simple measures that will help reduce both infection rates and hospital admissions, and therefore reduce the number of Long COVID sufferers and eventually the number of deaths due to COVID.






















covid data summary


Reminder on data reporting in the UK

Since 1 July 2022, the COVID-19 UKHSA Dashboard has moved to weekly reporting. From 8 September 2022, updates take place on Thursdays.
The reporting of ZOE COVID Study data has remained daily.
The reporting of ONS Infection Survey data has remained weekly with a 7-day lag.



ZOE COVID Study Estimates

■ Daily Estimated Cases

We are now observing a strong increase in the estimated number of cases for 15 consecutive days.

Is the autumn wave already upon us?
Are we ready?
Shouldn’t booster jabs now be given to everyone?


(Note: ZOE daily new cases are updated daily at 9am and based on PCR and LFT test data as of 2 days ago.)





ONS Infection Survey Estimates

■ Weekly Estimates Cases

In the week ending 17 September 2022, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in England. In the week ending 20 September 2022, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to increase in Wales and the trend was uncertain in Scotland. In Northern Ireland the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 decreased in the two weeks up to 20 September 2022, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week.

The ONS estimates that 1,060,500 people tested positive for COVID-19 in that week.



In the week ending 17 September 2022, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) increased in the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, the West Midlands, the East of England, London, and the South East. In the same week, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 was uncertain in the East Midlands and the South West. In the North East, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased in the two weeks up to 17 September 2022, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week.





ONS Estimated Rate of COVID Reinfections

The estimated rate for reinfections has increased dramatically since Omicron variants became dominant

According to the ONS, there has been a large increase in the rates for all first reinfections since the Omicron variants became dominant, from 12.7 per 100,000 participant days at risk (95% confidence interval: 11.8 to 13.7) on 20 December 2021, to a high of 50.2 per 100,000 participant days at risk (95% confidence interval: 48.8 to 51.5) on the 25 April 2022. The rate has decreased slightly since, likely owing to varying levels of protection provided by past infections, including with Omicron BA.1, and changing background infection levels among the population.


Of all identified reinfections, most have been in the period when the Omicron variants were dominant

Of all identified reinfections, most have been in the period when the Omicron variants were dominant (91.6%). A large proportion of these reinfections had first infections in the periods when Alpha (35.0%) and Delta (35.6%) variants were dominant. A small proportion of people have had a first and second infection during the period when the same variant was dominant, but the rate is highest for those in the period when the Omicron variants were dominant (21.0%) because this period includes BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5.

(Sources: ONS)





ONS Weekly COVID-19 Recorded Deaths (ENG & WAL)

Deaths involving COVID-19 increased in the UK

According to the ONS, in the week ending 16 September 2022 (Week 37), 10,673 deaths were registered in England and Wales; 301 of these deaths mentioned "novel coronavirus", accounting for 2.8% of all deaths.

This is a slight decrease compared with the week ending 9 September 2022 (Week 36), when the number of all-cause deaths registered was 10,753; COVID-19 accounted for 365 of these deaths (3.4%), which was a larger proportion than the latest week.












latest guidance


UK Government’s List of symptoms of COVID-19

After two years without updating its list of just three symptoms of COVID-19 (a high temperature, a new continuous cough and a loss or change to the sense of smell or taste), the NHS has finally updated its list of symptoms of COVID:

😩 Shortness of breath
🥱 Feeling tired or exhausted
🤕 An aching body
🤯 A headache
🤐 A sore throat
🤧 A blocked or runny nose
😞 Loss of appetite
🥴 Diarrhoea
🤮 Feeling sick or being sick


ZOE COVID Study’s Top 20 symptoms of COVID-19 (as of 23-Sep-2022)
ZOE COVID Study






latest news


COVID-19 infections continued to increase in England and Wales — ONS 🆕


The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to increase in England and Wales, while the trend was uncertain in Northern Ireland and Scotland in the latest week.

The estimated percentage of people living in private households (those not in care homes or other communal establishments) testing positive for COVID-19 was:

  • 1.57% in England (1 in 65 people)
  • 2.07% in Wales (1 in 50 people)
  • 1.26% in Northern Ireland (1 in 80 people)
  • 2.22% in Scotland (1 in 45 people)

(Source: ONS)



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we need your help


Since February 2022, the UKHSA has slowly reduced the publishing of its daily COVID updates, following the UK Government’s narrative that we should all “live with the virus”. UKHSA now reports only once a week.

The virus doesn’t take a break 6 days a week.
It doesn’t infect people from time to time.
It doesn’t stop at a border either.

The virus still spreads and kills people every day in the UK and around the world. COVID-19 is NOT over.

We, at PMP, have decided to continue to publish the latest COVID data available every day.

Please, support our work through our crowdfunding to help us to continue our COVID reporting: Donate now.


🙈🙉🙊 #CovidIsNotOver.






must-read


London hospital patients with Covid rise 15% in a week as ‘autumn wave’ begins
All regions are seeing an increase in patients with coronavirus
Rise in Covid-19 hospital patients shows ‘autumn wave’ is under way
Hospital admissions are highest among those aged 85 and over.
Children in England turning five will no longer be offered a jab – here’s why that’s bad news
Vaccinating children against COVID is important. But only 11% of 5- to 11-year-olds in England have received the first dose of COVID vaccine. Where we have safe and effective vaccines, there’s no sense in not rolling them out.






variant news



■ 🧬 COG-UK sequencing





(Source: COG-UK)











vaccination


💉 Latest UK Vaccination

Note: UK vaccination data is now published weekly on Thursdays.






(Source: UK Health Security Agency + Public Health Wales
+ Public Health Scotland + HSC NI + ONS)


Note: Data cross-referenced with the latest official data from the UK dashboard.

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021. (Source: ONS)









long covid


🧩 Long COVID


LONG COVID UK ESTIMATE (ONS – 1-Sep-2022, Data up to 31-Jul-2022)

🚨 2 million people currently live with long COVID in the UK (vs 1.8 million last month)
🚨 3.1% of the UK population currently live with long COVID (vs 2.8%)
🚨 1 in 33 people in the UK has long COVID
🚨 Long COVID symptoms still adversely affect the day-to-day activities of 1.5 million people, 73% of long COVID sufferers (vs 1.3 million)
🚨 Of those, 384,000 people (19%) are “limited a lot” (vs 369,000)
🚨 582,000 (29%) first had COVID-19 before Alpha became the main variant; 256,000 (13%) in the Alpha period, 386,000 (19%) in the Delta period, and 681,000 (34%) in the Omicron period.
LONG COVID UK ESTIMATE

🚨 Most common symptoms of long COVID
▫ fatigue (62%) ▲
▫ shortness of breath (37%) ▲
▫ difficulty concentrating (33%) ▲
▫ muscle ache (31%) ▲

🚨 Prevalence of long COVID is greatest in people
▫ aged 35-69 years
▫ females
▫ living in more deprived areas
▫ working in social care
▫ with another activity limiting health condition or disability

🚨 Long COVID by occupation (ONS – 29 Jun-2022)
▫ Police and protective services (25%)
▫ Education (22%)
▫ Social care sector (22%)



Note: There has been a change in the way the data are collected by the ONS. As a result, these estimates are not fully comparable with those in previous bulletins. For more details on these changes, please see the Impact of moving to remote data collection.








long covid kids


🧩 Long COVID Kids

LONG COVID KIDS

According to a recent systematic review and meta-analyses of Long-COVID in children and adolescents published in Nature:

🚨 Long COVID affects 1 in 4 infected children (25.24%)

🚨 For hospitalised children, prevalence of long-COVID is nearly 1 in 3 infected children (29.19%)

🚨 Most prevalent clinical manifestations of Long COVID in children/adolescents:
▫ mood symptoms (16.50%)
▫ fatigue (9.66%)
▫ sleep disorders (8.42%)
▫ headache (7.84%)
▫ respiratory symptoms (7.62%)
▫ sputum production or nasal congestion (7.53%)
▫ cognitive symptoms (6.27%)
▫ loss of appetite (6.07%)
▫ exercise intolerance (5.73%)
▫ altered smell (5.60%)

🚨 Children infected by COVID-19 have a higher risk of persistent dyspnea, anosmia/ageusia, and/or fever

🚨 Like adults, the pediatric population’s risk factors associated with long-COVID are:
▫ older age children
▫ female gender
▫ severe COVID-19
▫ overweight/obesity
▫ comorbid allergic diseases and other long-term co-morbidities

Click to enlarge


Conclusion

The authors of the systematic review and meta-analyses of Long-COVID in children and adolescents conclude:

🧾
Protective measures are essential to prevent long-COVID in children. We need to understand the long-COVID pathophysiology and symptomatology to support clinical management systems, establish rehabilitation programs, and design guidelines and therapeutic research.
Long-COVID represents a significant public health concern, and there are no guidelines to address its diagnosis and management.
“Our meta-analyses further support the importance of continuously monitoring the impact of long-COVID in children and adolescents and the need to include all variables and appropriate control cohorts in studies to better understand the real burden of pediatric long-COVID.”






additional data


Weekly New Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 (per million)




Total Cases & Total Deaths




Orphanhood in the UK 🆕

🕯️ Orphanhood of children from COVID-19 is estimated at 15,297 in the UK.
🚨 A tragedy barely mentioned in the media.
(Source: Imperial College London)




Orphanhood in the World 🆕

🕯️ Globally 10.5M children lost parents or caregivers and 7.64M children experienced COVID-associated orphanhood.
(Source: JAMA Network)




Estimated ®️ Number

(Sources: UK Health Security Agency + Welsh Government
+ Scottish Government + N-I Ministry of Health)



Population Testing Positive for COVID-19

(Source: ONS)



Number of contact tracing alerts sent (England & Wales)

(Source: NHS)



Stringency Index

(Source: University of Oxford)






data sources


📚 Data Sources:

Our reporting strategy

Since 27 July we don’t publish the UKHSA data in our daily reporting. Those figures are just conveniently and undoubtedly flawed. Instead, we now focus on the ZOE COVID Study and the ONS Infection Survey data.

Our readers deserve the truth about COVID-19 and the UK government has clearly been doing everything – from ending free tests to irregular dashboard reports, delaying and ending some data reports – to make sure the media slowly lose interest in COVID reporting and get the public to believe both that they can live with the virus and that the pandemic is over. This is wrong and untrue, as the WHO and most public health experts have repeatedly told us.

For these reasons, PMP Magazine has so far, and will continue to publish COVID daily updates because we see it as part of our mission to always report the truth, even if it means we are the last media in the UK to do so.

While others are sleepwalking to hide the inconvenient truth about COVID-19, PMP Magazine isn’t giving up! Our daily report is free and accessible to all.

Please support our work with a donation: PMP-Magazine.com/crowdfunding

COVID is not over.



PMP Magazine



Going further:

  • Estimates of the population for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, 2019 | ONS





  • — AUTHOR —

    J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.
         



    Sources
    • Text: This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 30 Sept 2022. | The authors write in a personal capacity.
    • Data cross-referenced with the latest official data from the UK dashboard.
    • Cover: Adobe Stock/SergeyBitos.
    • Icons from www.flaticon.com




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