Professor Paul Whiteley
Total 12 Posts
The likely next prime minister is focusing on tax cuts to solve inflation. There are indeed votes to be won by focusing on taxes – but these are among Conservative party members, not the general public.
Tax cuts are unlikely to help Britain address its current crises. Extra spending has to be financed. To do this, Britain needs higher taxes, not tax cuts.
A difficult question for pollsters to investigate: Is race an issue for Rishi Sunak? No one says ‘yes, ethnicity is an issue for me’ when pollsters ask but Conservative party members do show an above-average opposition to diversity drives.
Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss? Polling shows party members want her – but the wider voting public would choose him.5 min read
Will Conservative Party members choose their preferred leader to become the new Prime Minister or the candidate who is more popular with the wider public?
With 41% of his MPs voting against his leadership, how realistic are Boris Johnson’s hopes for survival?
The plan to cut 91,000 civil service jobs could make service delivery impossible after decades of decline – not a winning campaign strategy in a future general election.
Boris Johnson should be very worried about what 2022 local council results mean for the next general election.4 min read
There is a strong correlation between local election results and general election results two years later. If that pattern holds, Johnson’s parliamentary majority is at risk. The Conservatives could lose up to 122 seats in the next general election.