Professor Paul Whiteley
Total 21 Posts
What does high immigration mean for the government’s popularity? What data on voting habits tell us
5 min read
High immigration rates correlate with increased support for the governing party and lower unemployment rates. Legal immigration has little economic impact, but illegal immigration causes fear and anxiety. To win elections, parties must address irregular arrivals and emphasize immigration benefits.
Why a Labour-Lib Dem coalition wouldn’t cause electoral annihilation like their deal with the Tories
5 min read
Labour and Lib Dem leaders deny potential coalition for the next general election. However, ideological proximity favours a Lib Dem-Labour partnership.
A painful picture for the Tories: Forecasting the general election from the local results
5 min read
Electoral forecasting is a difficult science that relies on past data. Different techniques produce different outcomes for the next UK general election. Looking back at the relationship between local elections and subsequent general elections puts Labour on course for a House of Commons majority.
Can Rishi Sunak save the Tories? Voting behaviour over time suggests it will take more than personal appeal to win the next election
5 min read
The prime minister is popular, his party is not. Which is more important as we head towards the next election?
A decade of polls suggests Scotland’s new first minister Humza Yousaf will struggle to deliver independence, just like Nicola Sturgeon
5 min read
The SNP’s new leader only just squeaked over the line against his rivals, which is a bad sign for his ambition to take Scotland out of the UK.
Why refusing public sector pay rises won’t help reduce inflation
6 min read
Recent price rises are not due to higher wages but supply-side issues, including the war in Ukraine, the COVID pandemic, and Brexit. All in all, the current government’s intransigence on public sector pay is based on both bad economics and bad politics.
70 years of data suggest the Conservatives will suffer a big defeat at the next election
5 min read
Polling only provides a snapshot of the current moment but modelling across decades can help us predict the next election result.