Professor Paul Whiteley
Total 20 Posts
Why a Labour-Lib Dem coalition wouldn’t cause electoral annihilation like their deal with the Tories
5 min read
Labour and Lib Dem leaders deny potential coalition for the next general election. However, ideological proximity favours a Lib Dem-Labour partnership.
A painful picture for the Tories: Forecasting the general election from the local results
5 min read
Electoral forecasting is a difficult science that relies on past data. Different techniques produce different outcomes for the next UK general election. Looking back at the relationship between local elections and subsequent general elections puts Labour on course for a House of Commons majority.
Can Rishi Sunak save the Tories? Voting behaviour over time suggests it will take more than personal appeal to win the next election
5 min read
The prime minister is popular, his party is not. Which is more important as we head towards the next election?
A decade of polls suggests Scotland’s new first minister Humza Yousaf will struggle to deliver independence, just like Nicola Sturgeon
5 min read
The SNP’s new leader only just squeaked over the line against his rivals, which is a bad sign for his ambition to take Scotland out of the UK.
Why refusing public sector pay rises won’t help reduce inflation
6 min read
Recent price rises are not due to higher wages but supply-side issues, including the war in Ukraine, the COVID pandemic, and Brexit. All in all, the current government’s intransigence on public sector pay is based on both bad economics and bad politics.
70 years of data suggest the Conservatives will suffer a big defeat at the next election
5 min read
Polling only provides a snapshot of the current moment but modelling across decades can help us predict the next election result.
Trust in UK politics has taken a hit after recent chaos – and historical data suggests only a change of government can fix it
4 min read
The public does not trust British political parties at the moment, particularly not the Tories. This affects their ability to govern because much of governing is about persuading people to do or not to do things, and that becomes impossible if voters believe that they are being lied to all the time.