S ince February 2022, the UKHSA has slowly reduced the publishing of its daily COVID updates, following the UK Government’s narrative that we should all “live with the virus”. They now report only once a week. We, at PMP Magazine, have decided to continue to publish the latest COVID data available every day using the data from the ZOE COVID Study and the ONS Infection Survey to understand what is still happening with the pandemic.





▪ The Latest

The current ZOE COVID Study positive symptomatic case estimate is 134,116 new cases. It is predicted that at least 1,617,171 people have symptomatic COVID today in the UK.

ZOE LATEST DETAILS

▪ Latest estimate: 134,116 new cases (+22.1% in a week)
▪ 7-day estimate: 834,207 cases (+26.0%)
▪ Daily average: 119,172 people are infected on average every day
▪ Currently predicted to have COVID: 1,617,171 people
▪ It is estimated that there have been 4,493,594 cases (-17.6% vs last year) in the UK since 1-Jan-2023

PMP LATEST ESTIMATE OF ESTIMATES

▪ 7-day estimate as of 17-Jan-2023: 660,094 new cases (-37.0% in a week)




◦ CASE ANALYSIS

According to ZOE COVID Study data, the second winter wave of COVID-19 is currently in full swing, with a continuous rise in cases being observed over the past 10 days. This serves to emphasize the necessity for people in the UK to remain alert and take the essential measures (booster jab, masks, ventilation, etc.) to safeguard themselves and their communities from infection. The pandemic is not over.




◦ INFECTION ANALYSIS

Professor Tim Spector, who leads the ZOE COVID Study, explains that as is typical after a school holiday, children returning to school in January have been a primary factor in the recent spike in COVID-19 cases. They typically contract the virus a week before other age groups, and this pattern is being repeated, with the virus spreading to other age groups as a result.

Other contributing factors include the cold weather, which encourages people to stay indoors, and the multiple variants of the virus currently circulating in the UK.



◦ VARIANT ANALYSIS

The second winter wave is driven by three distinct variants of the virus, BQ.1 (44.5% of sequenced cases🔻), BA.2.75 (35.8%🔺), and XBB.1.5 (11.8%🔺). These variants are believed to be more infectious than the original strain. [data as of 30-Jan-2022]



◦ COVID DEATH ANALYSIS

🕯️ 16,100 children in the UK have experienced COVID-associated orphanhood since the beginning of the pandemic
🚨 A tragedy barely mentioned in the media

The UK has witnessed a shocking 881 fatalities due to COVID-19 in the week ending 20 January 2023, which is the second-highest figure since July 2022.

Although this figure is slightly lower than the preceding week’s 1,060 deaths, it is still a stark reminder of the severity of the virus and the need to remain vigilant in order to protect public health.

Specifically, England registered 711 deaths, Wales 69, Scotland 83, and Northern Ireland 17, which translates to an average of 126 deaths per day, or one death every 11 minutes.

The devastating magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic is made abundantly clear by the UK’s staggering death toll, which has now reached an alarming 217,262 since the start of 2020. This figure serves as a stark reminder of the severity of this global crisis.







MORE COVID DATA:


















covid data summary


Reminder on data reporting in the UK

Since 1 July 2022, the COVID-19 UKHSA Dashboard has moved to weekly reporting. From 8 September 2022, updates take place on Thursdays.
The reporting of ZOE COVID Study data has remained daily.
The reporting of ONS Infection Survey data has remained weekly with a 7-day lag.



ZOE COVID Study Estimates

■ Daily Estimated Cases




Note: In the past 12 months (since 1-Jan-2022), the estimated number of COVID infections in the UK has not been under 80,000 cases once. The lowest estimated number of cases was recorded on 22-Jan-2023 with 83,332 infections.

It happened once only.

Also, apart from one day in 29-Aug-2022, there were over 100,000 COVID cases every day in 2022.

That is not normal.


(Note: ZOE daily new cases are updated daily at 9am and based on PCR and LFT test data as of 2 days ago.)





ONS Infection Survey Estimates

■ Weekly Estimates of Cases






Weekly Estimate of Estimates





ONS Weekly COVID-19 Recorded Deaths

■ Deaths involving COVID-19 in the UK







Latest COVID-19 Records













guidance


UK Government’s List of symptoms of COVID-19

After two years without updating its list of just three symptoms of COVID-19 (a high temperature, a new continuous cough and a loss or change to the sense of smell or taste), the NHS has finally updated its list of symptoms of COVID:

😩 Shortness of breath
🥱 Feeling tired or exhausted
🤕 An aching body
🤯 A headache
🤐 A sore throat
🤧 A blocked or runny nose
😞 Loss of appetite
🥴 Diarrhoea
🤮 Feeling sick or being sick


In the United States, since November 2022, the FDA recommends that if you are exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, you should undergo serial testing. This involves taking a lateral flow test, waiting 48 hours, taking another lateral flow test, and then taking a final test after another 48 hours. The FDA also requires that this guidance be included on the packaging of the tests.

📥 Take a LFT test
⏳ If the result is negative, wait 48 hours
📥 Take another LFT test
⏳ If the result is negative, wait agains 48 hours
📥 Take a final LFT test


Top symptoms of COVID-19 (as of 2-Jan-2023)
ZOE COVID Study

How to do a coronavirus (COVID-19) rapid lateral flow test
Find out how to do an NHS rapid lateral flow test for COVID-19 and report the results. Rapid lateral flow tests show the result on a device that comes with the test.






lexiCOV


Airborne Transmission

  • Throughout much of 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) held tight to the idea that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, spreads through relatively large ‘respiratory’ droplets that are expelled by infected people while coughing, sneezing or speaking. These droplets contaminate nearby surfaces or get breathed in, so the WHO stressed the importance of washing hands and disinfecting surfaces. It took many months for the agency to acknowledge that the virus could travel on tiny particles called aerosols that can spread widely and linger in the air. And nearly two years passed before the WHO clearly stated that the virus is airborne.

(Source: Nature)

COVID-19

  • The WHO announced “COVID-19” as the name of this new disease on 11 February 2020, following guidelines previously developed with the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

(Source: World Health Organization)

COVID & Immune System

  • The COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2) actually has the ability to actively suppress and hide from multiple parts of your immune system. Even if you have been vaccinated or previously infected, some immune cells that were trained to identify the virus will not see that your cells are infected because the virus can turn off the early warning system of the infected cell to call for help.

(Source: PMP Magazine)

COVID Transmission & Protection

  • When you breathe, talk, cough, sing, exercise or anything else that involves exhaling, particles (aerosols) get released into the air that contain contents from your respiratory tract, including viruses that you may be infected with that are replicating there. Exercise and singing produce large amounts of aerosols from your mouth which is why you often heard about superspreader events in choirs and gyms.

(Source: PMP Magazine)

COVID Rebound

  • COVID rebound occurs when a person who has COVID-19 tests negative, then within two to eight days has a recurrence of symptoms or a new positive test. A brief return of symptoms may be part of the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) infection in some persons, independent of treatment with Paxlovid and regardless of vaccination status.

(Source: CDC)

Long COVID

  • Most people with coronavirus (COVID-19) feel better within a few days or weeks of their first symptoms and make a full recovery within 12 weeks. For some people, symptoms can last longer. This is called long COVID or post COVID-19 syndrome.
  • The most common symptoms of long COVID are:

▫ extreme tiredness (fatigue)
▫ shortness of breath
▫ loss of smell
▫ muscle aches

  • However, there are lots of symptoms you can have after a COVID-19 infection, including:

▫ problems with your memory and concentration ("brain fog")
▫ chest pain or tightness
▫ difficulty sleeping (insomnia)
▫ heart palpitations
▫ dizziness
▫ pins and needles
▫ joint pain
▫ depression and anxiety
▫ tinnitus, earaches
▫ feeling sick, diarrhoea, stomach aches, loss of appetite
▫ a high temperature, cough, headaches, sore throat, changes to sense of smell or taste
▫ rashes

(Source: NHS)

Repeat Infections

  • In a study published in Nature Medicine, researchers report that COVID-19 reinfections could be taking a toll on some important organ systems. That risk applies to both short-term and long-term health effects. People who had more than one COVID-19 infection were three times more likely to be hospitalized and twice as likely to die than those who only had one infection. Those with multiple infections were also more vulnerable to other dangerous conditions; they were 3.5 times more likely to develop lung problems, 3 times more likely to have heart conditions, and 1.6 times more likely to have brain changes requiring care than people who had only had COVID-19 once. (See the table)

(Source: Time)

SARS-CoV-2

  • The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) announced severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as the name of the new virus on 11 February 2020. This name was chosen because the virus is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the SARS outbreak of 2003. While related, the two viruses are different.

(Source: World Health Organization)

Variant

  • A variant is a viral genome (genetic code) that may contain one or more mutations. In some cases, a group of variants with similar genetic changes, such as a lineage or group of lineages, may be designated by public health organizations as a Variant Being Monitored (VBM), Variant of Concern (VOC) or a Variant of Interest (VOI) due to shared attributes and characteristics that may require public health action.

(Source: CDC)

Variant Recombination

  • A process in which the genomes of two SARS-CoV-2 variants (that have infected a person at the same time) combine during the viral replication process to form a new variant that is different from both parent lineages.

(Source: CDC)






must-read


COVID-19 – A look at what happened in 2022
A public health expert’s analysis of the situation with COVID-19 in 2022. One thing that definitely didn’t happen in 2022 was the end of the pandemic.
The ‘Kraken’ COVID variant XBB.1.5 is rising quickly in the US – Here’s what it could mean for the UK
The ‘Kraken’ COVID variant XBB.1.5 is rising quickly in the US. It can evade our immune systems better than earlier variants and appears to be more infectious too. What does it mean for the UK?
Why a faint line on a COVID-19 test does not necessarily mean that you are no longer infectious
Rapid antigen and lateral flow tests are powerful tools, and it is important to recognize that even a faint line on a test should be interpreted as a positive result.
How COVID-19 actively suppresses and evades your immune system — Part 1
How the COVID virus works and how it hides from T-cells and Natural Killer immune cells to evade your immune system. How it also flies under the radar to reinfect you, whether you are vaccinated or not.






must-watch







variant news



■ 🧬 COG-UK sequencing










vaccination


💉 Latest UK Vaccination





(Source: UK Health Security Agency + Public Health Wales
+ Public Health Scotland + HSC NI + ONS)


Note: Data cross-referenced with the latest official data from the UK dashboard.

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021. (Source: ONS)









long covid


🧩 Long COVID


LONG COVID UK ESTIMATE (ONS – 5-Jan-2023 – Data up to 4-Dec-2022)

🚨 2.1 million people currently live with long COVID in the UK (vs 2.2 million last month | -4.5%)
🚨 3.3% of the UK population currently live with long COVID (vs 3.4%)
🚨 Long COVID symptoms still adversely affect the day-to-day activities of 1.6 million people, 76% of long COVID sufferers (vs 1.6 million)
🚨 Of those, 389,000 people (18%) are “limited a lot” (vs 370,000)
🚨 637,000 (30%) first had COVID-19 before Alpha became the main variant; 251,000 (12%) in the Alpha period, 382,000 (18%) in the Delta period, and 778,000 (37%) in the Omicron period.
LONG COVID UK ESTIMATE

🚨 Most common symptoms of long COVID
▫ fatigue (71%) ▲
▫ difficulty concentrating (49%) ▲
▫ shortness of breath (47%) ▲
▫ muscle ache (46%) ▲

🚨 Prevalence of long COVID is greatest in people
▫ aged 35-69 years
▫ females
▫ living in more deprived areas
▫ working in social care
▫ aged 16+ not working and not looking for work
▫ with another activity-limiting health condition or disability







(*Based on a total UK cohort of 67,081,234 individuals.)






education


Absence & Attendance in Schools






additional data


Weekly New Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 (per million)




Total Cases & Total Deaths




Orphanhood in the UK

🕯️ Number of children in the UK who have experienced COVID-associated orphanhood since the beginning of the pandemic
🚨 A tragedy barely mentioned in the media
(Source: Imperial College London)




Orphanhood in the World

🕯️ Number of children globally who have experienced COVID-associated orphanhood since the beginning of the pandemic
(Source: Imperial College London)




Estimated ®️ Number

After almost three years, the UK Health Security Agency will stop publishing COVID modelling data, including the virus’s R number from 6 January 2023.



Population Testing Positive for COVID-19

(Source: ONS)



Number of contact tracing alerts sent (England & Wales)

(Source: NHS)



Stringency Index






data sources


📚 Data Sources:

Our reporting strategy

Since 27 July we don’t publish the UKHSA data in our daily reporting. Those figures are just conveniently and undoubtedly flawed. Instead, we now focus on the ZOE COVID Study and the ONS Infection Survey data.

Our readers deserve the truth about COVID-19 and the UK government has clearly been doing everything – from ending free tests to irregular dashboard reports, delaying and ending some data reports – to make sure the media slowly lose interest in COVID reporting and get the public to believe both that they can live with the virus and that the pandemic is over. This is wrong and untrue, as the WHO and most public health experts have repeatedly told us.

For these reasons, PMP Magazine has so far, and will continue to publish COVID daily updates because we see it as part of our mission to always report the truth, even if it means we are the last media in the UK to do so.

While others are sleepwalking to hide the inconvenient truth about COVID-19, PMP Magazine isn’t giving up! Our daily report is free and accessible to all.

Please support our work with a donation: PMP-Magazine.com/crowdfunding

COVID is not over.



PMP Magazine







— AUTHOR —

J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.
     



Sources

Text: This piece is being updated on a daily basis.
Data cross-referenced with the latest official data from the UK dashboard.
Cover: Adobe Stock/SergeyBitos.
Icons from www.flaticon.com